Win Shares

Seriously. I keep reading this shit on excellent baseball websites about blah blah bull shit, and almost ALL writers I consider intelligent will come back to Win Shares as this be-all-end-all statistic. I read the fucking book Bill James wrote about it. It's total and complete bull shit. It was one of the most flawed things ever. The book was completely full of faulty logic, rounding errors, and generally made up shit. I bet you could count up the times James says "roughly", "approximately", and "we'll do X for now (then never change it)" and have a big ol' shit sandwich with them all. I need to go dig up my copy of it, read the formulation part, look online to see if he ever changed anything, and then create my own statistic. Fuck it. I'll do it right now.

The Howard Coefficient.

First off, everyone knows walks and home runs are pretty solid raw measures of how 'good' a hitter is. So let's start with this.

BB + HR

But wait! I'm emulating Bill James, so clearly, since you only get to first base on a walk, and get FOUR bases with a home run, lets arbitrarily divide BB by 4.

(BB/4) + HR

Now we need to factor in the other hits! Golly gee, dubbles and trippels count two!!! DIVIDES EM UP TOO!

(BB/4) + (2B/2) + (3B/3) + HR

To hell with singles. They're just walks for the showy prick. So now I guess we probably should put some stolen base crap in there. I remember My Hero (tm) Billy claimed that something like 70% (approximately of course) of all SB attempts were sucessful, so watch this fancy pantsy statistical jargon.

(BB/4) + (2B/2) + (3B/3) + HR + (SB/CS)**2

I totally just squared that. I think it looks better that way... makes me look all fancy. Now to factor in defence, the way I was inspired to see it was that an error always gives up a base or two to the other guys, so let's just assume here that all errors a player makes will just cancel out their walks and doubles, so now we have:

(3B/3) + HR + (SB/CS)**2

I like the way this is shaping up. Oh I forgot. The Grit Factor. If a player is white and short, he's "hard-nosed" and "a gamer". So let's add that. PS--Fuck triples.

HR + (SB/CS)**2 + Height*Skin (Skin = 1 if white, 0 otherwise [-1 if you're dark skinned {0 if you're dark skinned but you have a cool name like Yovani}])

Remember, I learned all this from baseball journalism! Erstad and Eckstein are pretty much my heroes. Did I say pretty much my heroes? I misspelled 'what I think about during sex'. Lastly, I run this formula through my Bull-Shit-Fuck-You-O'Meter, and here's what happens...

WIN SHARES IS AMATEUR FUCK YOU LAWL ROFFFFFL

Well fuck. Back to the drawing board again.

Future projects

1) Batters and pitchers analysis v. certain individual pitchers and batters, specifically the ones that don't suck.

2) Research into "percentage of good outings". Example. Soriano for the Braves. Has a damn good ERA, but I know for a fact that 2 times he's allowed runs have been in throwaway games anyways, so that ERA is does not reflect his true value. Note: WXRL may already take this into account? Note 2: Check to see how LEV is calculated--it may make those runs allowed in 5 runs games insignificant.

3) See how reliable fangraphs.com's win probabilities are. Gotta be some shit that can be done there.

4) Run some regressions to figgur out what the most consistant stats are from year to year in small samples for pitchers. Try to go by number of outings, not necessarily number of innings. Relivers vary from outing to outing... not so much inning to inning when they get it.

5) Fuck you.

A wrestling note. Next monday is the draft special. Everyone and their mom and their mom's asshole is talking about who's going where, and everyone and their mom (but not her asshole) is calling that Beniot is getting moved, with Mysterio, Carlito, Umaga, and CM Punk being possibilities. Maybe.

Here's what I see. RAW is money. The end. As long as Cena floats around on there for kids to like, and as long as there are a few old timers like Flair, HHH, HBK, etc. on there, that show will be over 3.5 every time. It's the flagship show. I know no matter how shitty wrestling gets people like me will still watch it. Unless they change World Wrestling Entertainment to 'World Wbuttfucking Exhibition'. It's almost there anyways. But I digress. The point is, Smackdown is unstable, but that could be a function of the show being on a Friday night. I know I only watch it about 1 Friday a month. ECW is a shit show, with no REAL draws outside of Lashley. Sure, CM Punk gets ok pop, and Dreamer and a few others inspire nostalga, but they need REAL stars.

Keep in mind with the following that these are all possibilities, and what I personally think would rock. Usually, the WWE does shit I don't agree with, and then somehow pulls out a watchable product from what appears to be garbage writing. I thought the Cena-Umaga thing would be fucking horrible when it started, and it actually turned out pretty alright.

So here's what I think.

Umaga is going to Smackdown or ECW and immediately jumps into the title hunt. He can't feud Cena anymore (but the WWE could go that way just as a delay [rather than Orton] until HHH comes back to claim the belt). Edge v. Umaga would be an alright feud, but Lashley v. Umaga is already set up, and without McMahon interference could be pretty good.

Chris Beniot would be a great, great, great addition to ECW. He has the reason since he worked there in the 90's, and they have that sweet table powerbomb thing video to show to prove it. I'm not sure how you turn him heel at this point to feud Lashley, but turning CM Punk fully heel and having them fight for a non-existent mid-card title would be epic.

Jeff and Matt Hardy. This is a tough one. I think with them losing the belts on Monday that either they are going to team up on a non-RAW show, or they're heading for singles hell. I personally would LOVE to see them both shipped to ECW, where their style matches up, or send Jeff to ECW to feud with CM Punk and/or Burke. There probably wouldn't be room for all 3 guys I've mentioned so far, but it would make tons of sense to take 2 of the 3. If both are brought to ECW I would love to see a program built for an introduction of some tag belts. I think that's very possible, but the problem is there's just not enough good tag teams on ECW. Major Brothers, Burke and Brown, Dreamer and Sandman, RVD and Sabu, that's really about it. Hardys to Smackdown would be alright too. Them against Kendrick and London would be an epic new guys v. old guys thing. I think the point of this blurb is that the WWE has the most options with the Hardys. They are lucky to have them and it's a very dynamic situation.

Carlito and/or Chris Masters. These guys are lumped together because they're effectively in the same situation. They're both heels, they're both moderately over, and they both have potential star power in different demographics. If Carlito were still face I'd say to push him to Smackdown so he could fight MVP for the US Title, but now, I'm not so sure where to put these guys.

Trivia question I just thought of: Who even has the damn Cruiserweight belt right now? I know it isn't Helms since he's injured until May. Is it Chavo? I think it is.

Rey Mysterio is a guy that I believe is staying put on Smackdown. It makes sense to have him come back and immediately win the Cruiserweight belt. Plus they've been "showcasing" some big 6-man cruiserweight matches. I'd like to see them find a new tag team to mess with Deuce and Domino so Kendrick and London could go to the C-weight division. A field of Mysterio, Kendrick, London, and Chavo would lead to some epic battles. It would be so easy to do. Just have London snap and beat the shit out of Kendrick for no reason. London already looks heelish with his shitty little beard.

Cryme Tyme has NOT gotten a good push on RAW since the beginning, but they are definitely not jobbing either. I think the RAW article I read has them at like 9-3 this year or something. They are cartoons. Push them to Smackdown, break up L&K, and have them fight D&D. Their style match up. Two ground bruiser teams. I like it. Actually, now that I think about it, if Cryme Tyme is NOT shipping to Smackdown I'll be surprised. The way I see the tag situation shaping up is D&D v. Cryme Tyme v. Kane & Boogey on SDown, WGTT v. Cade and Murdoch v. Kenny & Nitro on RAW, with the Hardys being a wild card. There's a few others like the Brits and the Highlanders out there, and some random pairings, but I feel that would be the best way to go.

The following significant RAW guys are staying put I believe: Cena, Orton, HBK, HHH, Santino, Cade, Murdoch

Guys on RAW I wouldn't be surprised to see moved: Hacksaw, Eugene, Duggan, Venis, Viscera, (other HEAT people), Nitro, Kenny, Carlito, Benjamin, Haas, Masters, J Hardy, Cryme Tyme, Flair, Super Crazy, The Highlanders

Guys from SDown that are staying: Edge, Batista, MVP, Chavo, Boogeyman, London, Kendrick, (other cruiserweights), Finlay, Booker, Henry, Kane, Undertaker, Kennedy, Deuce, Domino

Guys on RAW I wouldn't be surprised to see moved: Mysterio, Benoit, Regal (to RAW to kick the shit out of Santino), Taylor
Guys from ECW that are staying: Lashley, Sandman, Dreamer, RVD, Burke, Brown, Striker, Major Brothers, Stevie Richards, Balls Mahoney

Guys that I don't expect to leave ECW, but may: CM Punk, Kevin Thorn

I'm pretty confident in all that. The only wacky stuff I could see would be to like, move the C-weight division to ECW as a sort of X-Division sort of thing. That wouldn't be too bad. They wouldn't even have to move the wrestlers to a different taping, but I guess it WOULD be live. I'm ok with that. Who wants to see Kendrick v. London v. Mysterio v. Punk in a ladder match for the belt? I know I do.

AND COLT CABANA NEEDS TO HURRY THE FUCK UP.

WWE Stuff?

This is going to be a rant/analysis (out of boredom) about the various storylines going on in the WWE right now.

Cena v. Khali

I like Khali. The problem is he can't work a match longer than 5 minutes, so then it's pretty clear that there's no chance of a long headlining program with him. But that's not the purpose here. Cena just needs to ride this out until another headliner comes back from injury. Good work Khali. Your big fucking Indian ass has a true purpose, and that's to be big, hilarious, big, have huge nipples, and suck so bad at wrestling you rule.

Edge v. Batista?

This is just starting but it really is the only possibility for a long term feud on Smackdown. Batista sucks and should choke on a cock.

Hardys v. Cade and Murdoch

1) Cade and Murdoch need a defined gimmick. Like the gay cowboy and the gay redneck.
2) The weird line they have going on with the 'noble heel' is really well done. Cade (and to a lesser extent Murdoch) has a real future.
3) Nipples.

Deuce and Domino v. London and Kendrick

The D&D team sucks about as much as AD&D does. Lame.

Benoit v. MVP

At least the belt is off Benoit and this feud is about to end. I want Benoit to go to ECW and do stuff. I don't know what, but with RVD leaving, it could only be awesome if he jumped ship.

Kane and Boogey v. The British, Carlito v. Flair, Santino v. Masters, Burke v. Punk

Sadly, all these feuds have either run dry or have nothing to them. The British are NO threat to the weirdos, both CvF and BvP have gone on way too long and are pointless, and Santino is just too much smaller than Masters to build anything convincing. I just now realized how much the WWE disappoints me. And then I get to drive 6 hours tomorrow. Fuck that.

ECW

As you fellers know, I am a huge pro wrestling fan. From RAW, all the way down to Chikara, I pretty much love it all. However, I am always disappointed by the "IWC"... Internet Wrestling Community. There are all these goobers running around, writing columns about various topics, and my general conclusion is that these fucks living in their mother's basement don't know snakes from dildos about anything.

Evidence. The article entitled Pro's From the Palace. His last article is talking about how ECW died with Vince as the champ, and also talks about how Tommy Dreamer's "reaction" on wwe.com was just that--a reaction, a shoot, an honest opinion. He proposes the idea that Dreamer is truly offended at this storyling. Well, that's possible in some sense I believe, but c'mon. That's ridiculous. Who pays Dreamer's salary? Don't get me wrong, I love Tommy Dreamer and he really was/is the embodiment of what ECW was all about, but if he truly gave a fuck about ECW he would have jumped off of this WWECW creation long ago and gone back to the indies. No matter what his true feelings, it's clear that he has sold out--at least a LITTLE bit.

I still say the first ECW One Night Stand PPV is the last glimpse anyone is going to get of the old ECW. Now it's time to move on and cheer on ROH. It's a new era.

My last thought is about the IWC again. This "community" really is full of gibbering idiots. The baseball community that I'm active in is smart. People put forth ideas, run some stats if needed, propose their thoughts, but they always...ALWAYS... say them in a way that shows that nobody outside of a MLB front office knows anything--we can only guess. The IWC needs to quit pretending they are backstage, or on the creative staff, or used to drink beer and snort coke with Sabu back in 1995. Give me a fucking break.

And my last thought about this post in general. I believe there are 2 successful routes the WWECW can go in. If they don't hit one of these on the head, then we just have another version of Heat, or Shotgun Saturday Night. 1) Make it the original ECW. 2) Make it another Smackdown/Raw. Now I know these are obvious, and I know EVERYONE wants to see #1, but come on. It's impossible. The original ECW was in front of crowds about 1000 smart people on average I'd guess. That's so small, and promotes energy. Today the WWECW is in front of arenas of jackass children and yokels. Won't work. So as for #2, they are on their way. What do you need to make a show/belt respectable? Have a good champ. They have done that for the most part, with RVD, Big Show, and Lashley. Now the Vince thing. Nobody really LIKES it, but it gets the brand attention. Vince went from the huge Trump Wrestlemania thing, and now to ECW. That will give it attention clearly. Also, I am enjoying this McMahon-Lashley feud a lot. It just has a different feel than the other shitty McMahon feuds.

But. If in 6 months Dreamer, Sandman, RVD, Balls, Stevie Richards, etc. are all gone and there aren't good replacements at the level of CM Punk and Colt Cabana... I'll have a hard time watching. A show will not succeed at a marketing level with just the New Breed, Umaga, and Lashley as their top draw. I'm pretty sure of that. But hell... WWE creative may fuck up sometimes, but they hit one on the head other times as well. Get to it guys.

Michael Vick and Football

Here is why I hate sports media and football in general.

It appears to be the opinion of the sports media and [most] football teams that a winning team is what people want to see, and in most cases this is the case. Who wants to watch a team go 1-15 or whatever with Andrew Walter as the quarterback?

This is where their argument breaks down and pisses me off. Michael Vick is the funnest athlete to watch in modern sports. The only other person I can think of in his league is Steve Nash (and Tiger Woods if you're an old fogie). All media I have seen is calling for the Falcons to dump Michael Vick. This is insanity. Even if the Falcons go 7-9, Vick will still break off 50 yard runs and other similar fun, insane plays.

I believe in the integrity of sports, but you are out there to entertain fans, like it or not. And when it comes to football I'd watch Michael Vick run in circles over the boring Tom Brady's of the world any day.

RAW In Roanoke

1) www.conwaytwittygivesmeaboner.com

2) Wrestling.

Today Raw had a house show in Roanoke, VA. This was my first house show in a coon's age--I went to about 3 or 4 also about 10 years ago in the same building. Here's dem derr matches and what I thought.

Carlito d. Shelton Benjamin
Solid opening match. Hit all their spots. Nothing of REAL note.

Eugene d. Dan Rodimer
Pretty bad match. Would have definitely been a good match for Alleghany High School.

Kofi Kingston d. Val Venis
Venis totally heeled it up and was totally awesome at it. He's good at that. Kingston is really hyped and is probably going to be the next talent to debut on TV, but damn he sucked it up. He had this super lame clappy thing, and was just... bad. He botched a fucking arm drag. AN ARM DRAG. My nuts can arm drag.

The Great Khali d. Hacksaw Jim Duggin
I <3 Hacksaw. He needs more respect than he gets. He's totally fun and awesome.

Cryme Tyme d. Kenny Dykstra and Johnny Nitro
This was a good match after two shitfests. Kenny and Nitro are apparently teaming up more regularly now. It's awesome, and Cryme Tyme is awesome and totally over. I wish they got a big push again.

Santino Marella d. Chris Masters
Masters is good on the mic, Santino was ok. Not an Intercontinental Champ... but solid enough?

Melina Perez d. Mickie James
Boring. Stupid. Waste of my time and my free ticket.

The Hardyz d. Lance Cade and Trevor Murdoch
Hardyz are incredible performers. Everyone was way into it. Jeff is an incredible spotfest, and Matt is just a damn solid worker. Superb match.

John Cena d. Umaga
Total shit. Cena is awful and needs to be replaced. This match was totally the definition of "same old shit". Don't get me wrong... Cena has good matches in him. His match at the Royal Rumble, and on various Raw's as of late are proof of that... but tonight was "just another" Cena match. I didn't pop for anyone all night, except to boo Cena for being a horrible person to carry the WWE. Blah.

Then the total super awesome best wrestler EVER Khali came back and taunted Cena. I hope Khali wins the belt. THAT would be awesome to the max.

Then my car got towed by McDonald's. Reason number a zillion not to go to that fucking place.

What a break from posting.

I think we all know what happened here at Virginia Tech. Let's not talk about it here.

And Shark Boy came to Alleghany High School.... and stunk the joint up. Blah. Awful wrestling.

Let me throw a few thoughts out there.

1) The past Monday Night Raw was excellent. Khali is the bomb, and I really, really hope that somehow the belt falls off of Cena within the past 2 months. There are several small things to complain about on Raw lately, but that's the only glaring problem. Belts have to be exchanged on occasion in order to maintain their legacy. Cena has, in effect, held the belt for damn near 2 years. That's insane.

2) I SHOULD be completely annoyed by Vince having the ECW title, but by god, I kind of like it just for a) the publicity for ECW, and b) it creates a focal point for hatred from the Originals. And I like that.

3) HOW BOUT DEM BRAVES?! I know it's only May 1st, but damn they're playing good.

4) At first I didn't like the Ryan Langerhans trade, then I realized in non-fanboy mode that he is 27 years old and has never been better than a 4th outfielder. Sure, he has a fun name, but those pretty much grow on trees. Pujols. Hehehehehe.